Hey everyone, super excited to be writing on Schemanske’s Corner! Today I’m going to dive into Chien-Pao for post rotation including Temporal Forces. Chien-Pao gets a ton of fun new tools and definitely gets way harder to play with the new set. I’ll be covering a good starting list for the deck and matchups for the new Chien-Pao.
The 60 Cards
We get it, you came just for the deck list, here it is to save you some scrolling:
This is an extremely solid shell that I currently have built, might be a couple cards off what I land on for EUIC but it’s an extremely solid list, nonetheless. Here’s some justifications for all of the cards in the deck:
3 60 HP Frig - There’s just so much in this metagame to worry about. While I would like a 70 HP for Tina + LB, I’m not projecting a ton of it at EUIC, honestly expecting mostly garbage piles with a splash of real decks (Zard, etc). For Orlando 70 HP might be correct depending how well lost does (expecting well so watch out).
2 Baxcalibur - I’ve considered 3 in this list actually to deal with Prime Catcher pressure, but that’s mostly fake, so I’m sticking with 2
2-2 Bibarel - I’ve seen a lot of lists with a 3-2 or 3-3, and I did test that for a little bit. What I found is it doesn’t really increase any matchup percentages, and only helps the consistency just a little bit (easily less than 5%). The two slots are definitely better to be spent somewhere else.
2 Pao + 3 Rod - This is one of those flips that I always whimp out of actually playing but have greater justification for sticking to in this metagame. A lot of the time, we only need 2 Pao to win the game, with Iron Hands being able to take 2 Prizes off active, and a common line for our opponent being spending a turn taking down a Baxcalibur or Bibarel to try to slow us down. While 3 Chien-Pao is powerful because it increases odds you have it when you need it, I’ve been finding myself instead preferring the extra attack with Radiant Greninja and/or Iron Hands to take additional Prize cards. For Iron Hands, oftentimes we’re dealing with a low-HP board and want multiple Iron Hands, and For Greninja’s case we can play the 1-Prize game, keeping 2 Prizers off our board completely while spreading with Greninja to win the Prize race. This is a small but impactful change in my opinion that might give the extra edge in some matchups where you need to discard rods early and/or they’re stuck in the Prizes.
1 Hands + 1 Lightning - I did think about cutting this package, but while I don’t respect lost enough to play a 70 HP frig, I definitely think Hands swings the matchup far enough into our favor to justify the single deck slot to play it. It also makes unwinnable board scenarios winnable by going Catcher + Hands for 3 Prizes, or even just Catcher + Hands for 2 on a board with only single-Prizers.
Ditto - This one goes out to Josh Frink - I very, very quickly dismissed the power level of Ditto when I did my obsessive amounts of Pao solitaire on card reveal, but the power of this card is not to be understated. The reason Ditto is extremely solid in my mind is for the ability to **lead Pao + Ninja + Frig a very good number of games more than you would be able to without Ditto** For example, Poffin + Nest ball gets you there now, a single Irida gets you there (Irida for Poffin + Ninja, Poffin for ditto + frig, Ditto into Pao). It actually makes the lack of Battle Pass not really matter in the deck, as now you just absolutely don’t care and can get out “the perfect 3” turn one every single game.
Bundle - This card is pretty good and has so, so many applications. The primary application here is **Turbo Hands**, which is an extremely powerful deck I expect to do very well at EUIC. They will usually only have (or be able to get out) one Miraidon, where you can use Bundle to pretty much guarantee 2 Prizes with Pao, and they can’t really follow through with spamming Miraidon for their Prize map to work. It’s also just broken into things like Mimikyu in the active spot, a thing you don’t want to kill, or only 2 Pokemon on field. With Buddy Poffin making early game search a lot more reliable on turn 2, your Irida water Pokemon is moreso than last format unoccupied, allowing you to grab that Bundle and use it super easily.
2 Ciphermaniac - This is still relatively experimental, as I still think there is merit in playing Iono for the sheer purpose of refilling hand size. But 2 Ciphermaniac allows you to get much more aggressive with mid games in situations you have a decent setup for. Cutting to 1 Ciphermaniac is probably valid, but I can’t imagine a card I’d rather have over the second except 1 Iono. 1 Iono allows you to expand your hand size, which Cipher doesn’t allow you to do. You do indeed have to discard cards with this deck a lot, so it’s sometimes nice to refill up with Iono, but I haven’t found it to be incredibly problematic at the moment. Ciphermaniac is just too broken of a card, though.
4 Poffin + 4 Nest - I’m taking a page from Owyn’s book here and just maxing consistency - we don’t run Switchers anymore, so we have plenty of room to always making sure we’re setting up! I’ve tried cutting counts of either of these and it feels wrong so we’ll keep them.
Prime Catcher - the obvious ACE of choice. This card fundamentally changes how the deck is played - suddenly now we have an extremely reliable tempo move early game, something which Pao is notoriously weak at! Prime catcher also lets us have a reliable single item card gust effect which is just absurdly powerful. There are so many checkmates that you can establish with Prime Catcher, so as a rule of thumb, holding it is usually always better than playing it if given the choice.
Counter Catcher - Getting a second Prime catcher just sounds incredibly broken, hence the Counter Catcher. In practice this card is actually incredibly mediocre and cuttable, but it is very broken in a pinch against decks like Future that can out-speed early game. You can pick what you target instead of the Bundle, which you can use to target down the Iron Hands specifically in that matchup, for example. Or let’s say into Ancient they take a turn 1 kill into a little guy, you’ll be able to CC up a Ninja to take 2 off Hands, and still have your prime catcher live! Seems like “win more” a bit in my testing, but who knows what wacky decks people will play in London, would rather be safe than sorry.
3 Stop - This is also one I changed my mind on recently for those of you in coaching that have heard my takes on this! While 4 Stop gives you such a push early game, the matchup win percentage increase with cards like Counter Catcher and Bundle are just more valuable in my opinion. 2 Stop is also pretty valid, leaving 1 additional deck slot as a tech slot.
⠀Everything else is relatively standard and has been in all Pao lists before rotation as well!
Notable Exclusions
Cancelling Cologne?? - Jared what gives, isn’t Catcher + Cologne just broken and game altering?? Um, sure? I guess it’s game altering when it happens, but like, when does it happen really? We’re really only talking about LB with Manaphy, Tina with Manaphy, and Zard here when we have this discussion - and the first two can easily be dealt with by attacking with Iron Hands (do not attack with Iron hands into zard most of the time please, it’s a trap). The number of games I’m going to play against Zard and also, they don’t do the stupid evo thing where it doesn’t even work on both Charmander is probably going to be 1 or 2, and the number of those games I’m probably going to actually hit catcher + cologne is probably zero! For this reason, I’m out. This is kind of theorized by me at this point with not a ton of backing (as most of this article is), but I’m confident in this decision and probably won’t be playing Cologne to EUIC.
CRZ Kyogre - This is the worst best card to put in the deck - it’s very valid to target check things, but not quite worth the non-zero probability of starting it. I’d only sort of justify it if you can go 1 for 2 in the Prize exchange, but you can’t even do that because nobody plays Squawk or Mew anymore without Roaring moon being a thing! Sure, you can go even against Ancient Box in the Prize exchange but in my experience with the matchup, you don’t actually win because you don’t take more Prizes than them - you just lose slower.
Manaphy - The very slight advantage in the mirror you get by having this if you lose the flip is not worth it in my opinion. I’m really not expecting to see a ton of Chien-Pao at EUIC despite how much it’s being hyped up, and there’s no other matchup this is good into except maybe lost box, which I wouldn’t expect to see much of either. Once again looking at probability, P(starting Manaphy) > P(needing Manaphy), so for that reason I’m out.
Matchups
Arc Tina: Very favored
I don’t care that they have max belt, any Arc deck without Path is terrible in my eyes. Max Belt is the only thing they have going for them, and you can get around this by just, not giving them Pao! Or you do give them Pao, then kill Arc followed by Tina over the next 2 turns, and now they can’t one shot the Pao because Arc bricks!
Lost Box: Very favored
This matchup is so favored because you can usually always take the first 2 Prizes before they do. And their only response to iron hands is something that gives up 2 Prize cards (whether that be Hoopa ex or Roaring moon), which you can then respond with your Chien Pao! Do be mindful of the Prime Catcher though, please bench more than one Frigibax early game.
Zard: Favored
Of course it is, you’re Chien-Pao!! Nah I’m kidding this matchup is incredibly difficult to navigate. If you play it like pre-rotation, you’re almost guaranteed to lose. This is because of one card - Max Belt. The inclusion of Max Belt means Zard can always initiate the 2-Prize exchange if you lead Pao going second. Before it didn’t really matter if you went first or second into Zard, now you definitely have to go first and go for one of the following plays:
Prime Catcher Rotom is the safest option - initiating the 2-Prize exchange.
Iron Hands is also extremely solid, but risky if you don’t have an established board, because it opens up Counter Catcher on turn two on your Bib/Bax, similar to last format.
Prime catcher lone Charmander - this happens more than you’d think actually! Your opponent needs to get Manaphy + Pidgey + Rotom out, and if they only get those then you can kill the only Charmander turn one, preventing them from attacking completely for a turn. This allows you to take a second one Prizer before they take one, which is great not only because you can initiate the 2 Prize exchange, but also because you get an extra turn to set up your board.
If you go second, you’ll definitely have to not leave Chien-Pao active. Max Belt is very real and very scary, and the only way you can win off a Max Belt KO T2 is if you go aggressive and run them out of Zards, which is definitely possible, but not probable if they hit the double candy like they should.
The rest of the matchup is just chaining Chien Pao two Prize knockouts. The first two turns of the game are incredibly difficult, and all depend on both players’ setups immensely. If you play everything exactly right, it should be favored.
Tina - Favored
This matchup has always been favored and doesn’t change much with Temporal. Tina gains Prime Catcher, but we’re usually used to CC being live anyways. We still have Hands, Ninja, our Pao - we also have Prime Catcher to hunt Tinas down early on which is great! Tina gaining access to prime catcher is slightly scary - for this reason be careful about how little you bench, similar to last format just slightly scarier. Even if Counter Catcher isn’t live, your opponent can still Prime Catcher only Bax + Roxanne + Impact, for example. But if you get a good enough of an early game setup, this won’t be an issue.
Future Box: Slightly Favored
This is an extremely complex matchup that I like to sum up with the following - their deck bricks. Sure, you brick sometimes as well, but you’re also naturally favored in the Prize exchange with them getting a turn one attack - them whiffing the attack turn one with Miraidon completely ruins them the game. Or they could even whiff the Baton tool card on benched hands, allowing you to score a quick game because you run them out of energy! Generally, going first means that you can take the first 2 Prize KO with Iron Bundle/Prime Catcher, allowing you to start the 2-Prize game by taking them first. Be prepared though, as Future runs a slew of item gust in the form of Prime Catcher and Counter Catcher that can repeatedly gun down your Baxcaliburs, so make sure you have a solid setup.
Going second is a harder battle, as your opponent will likely go for Arm Press turn two on your active Chien-Pao. So going second, you definitely don’t want to have Pao active if you can help it and force your opponent to take a single Prize starting off - prioritizing Ancient Vessel as your means of powering up Hail Blade over multiple Shivery Chills.
Mill: Slightly Unfavored
This one is really all dependent on your start. The strategy in this one is to go Ninja spread on Tusks, then Iron Hands for 2s. This lets you conserve your energy on attacking as best as possible, and also cuts the number of counter catcher turns they get in half. You simply cannot win the game by attacking with Chien-Pao, so this is unfortunately what needs to be done.
Remember the correct way for them to play the matchup is actually to attack with Tusk into Hands, disrupting you a turn and forcing you to attack more energies to attack with something like a Chien-Pao. Be aware of this and make sure to save your Rods + Nest Balls to be able to respond to this KO ASAP.
Snorlax: Slightly Unfavored
I’ll die on the hill of Snorlax not being a bad of a matchup as it seems, but Eri scares me a lot, so I’ll concede that the matchup is unfavored. If you only get out one Chien-Pao + Baxcalibur + Ninja, you can have a pretty streamlined way of efficiently taking Prizes without handing them something that can’t attack. As long as you immediately use the important items in your hand (SER, rod), you are much safer from Eri. Iron Bundle might also come quite handy in the matchup as well if they only have one Snorlax in play!
Ancient Box: Unfavored
This matchup is pretty bad if they play the game. First of all, the energy consumption is quite high. You need 3 energies every time you want to take a Prize card (4 with capsule!), and they can OHKO Paos mid/late game with moon. As long as they chain, they’ll usually be favored. You can use Iron Hands on Ninja to take a quick two Prizes instantly, but it’s still not going to overcome the absolute barrage of Roaring Moons at the end of the game. Kyogre CRZ also helps with the energy consumption aspect of the matchup, but you still eventually lose, just slower.
Thank you so much for reading! If you are interested in more Chien-Pao tips, please check me out on Metafy at metafy.gg/jgrimesey for coaching! Have a great day, and best of luck in your Chien-Pao endeavors!